Freddie Freeman, 2013 Atlanta Braves MVP

Who was the Atlanta Braves team MVP in 2013? You can make difference cases for Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or Mike Minor. You could also make very strong cases for Andrelton Simmons and Chris Johnson. But the way I see it is that the Braves 2013 team MVP was Freddie Freeman.

On a Braves team that was hit hard by injuries and inconsistency among many of it's key players including terrible offensive seasons from B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, it was Freddie Freeman that the Braves turned to when the offense needed big hit after big hit to rack up an amazing 96 wins and win their first NL East title since 2005.

Freeman hit from day one of the season through the last day of the season when the Braves were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Divisional Series.

Freeman carried an impressive triple slash line of .319/.396/.501 with an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of .897. Freeman finished in the top ten in the NL in many offensive stats:

average - .319 (3rd)
on-base percentage - .396 (6th)
slugging percentage - .501 (8th)
on-base plus slugging - .897 (7th)
hits - 176 (7th)
runs - 89 (T-10th)
runs batted in - 109 (T-2nd)
runners in scoring position average - .443 (2nd)

Freeman also continues to show increased improvement in his walk and strikeout percentages. From his rookie year of 2011 through 2013 his strikeout percentage has declined from 22.4% to 20.8% to 19.2% while his walk percentage has increased from 8.3% to 10.3% to 10.5%. Freeman's linedrive percentage has also increased every year from 18.8% to 26.0% to 26.7%.

These trends tell us that Freddie Freeman at the ripe age of just 24 (September 12) that he is a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future which is why it would be smart on the Braves part to lock him to a long-term deal sooner rather than later.

Freeman is entering his first year of arbitration and following the 2016 season will be eligible for free agency. Signing him to a team friendly deal now would give the Braves stability at the first base position of which they haven't seen in many years.

Braves Off-Season Outlook

So the Atlanta Braves season came crashing to an end after losing their NLDS series to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 4 games. Where do the Braves go this off-season? What moves will they make?

Well it's almost certain that Brian McCann has suited up for the Braves for the last time baring he takes some sort of a major hometown discount to stay in Atlanta.

I could see the Braves bringing back Tim Hudson on a 1 year deal worth around $7M. Everything else I really don't have a feel for. Here's how the Braves current roster stacks.

FREE AGENTS
P Luis Ayala
P Scott Downs
P Freddy Garcia
P Tim Hudson
P Kameron Loe
P Paul Maholm
P Eric O'Flaherty
C Brian McCann
OF Reed Johnson - $1.6M club option with a $150K buyout

PRE-ARBITRATION
P David Carpenter - ARB 2015 - FA 2018
P Mike Minor - ARB 2015 - FA 2018
P Luis Avilan - ARB 2015 - FA 2018
OF Jose Constanza - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
C Evan Gattis - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
P Cory Gearrin - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
INF Tyler Pastornicky - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
SS Andrelton Simmons - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
P Julio Teheran - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
P Anthony Varvaro - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
P Alex Wood - ARB 2016 - FA 2019
C Christian Bethancourt - ARB 2017 - FA 2020
OF Todd Cunningham - ARB 2017 - FA 2020
2B Phil Gosselin - ARB 2017 - FA 2020
P David Hale - ARB 2017 - FA 2020
1B/OF Joey Terdoslavich - ARB 2017 - FA 2020

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
UT Blake DeWitt - FA 2016
OF Jason Heyward - FA 2016
INF Paul Janish - FA 2016
P Kris Medlen - FA 2016
P Jonny Venters - FA 2016
P Brandon Beachy - FA 2017
1B Freddie Freeman - FA 2017
3B Chris Johnson - FA 2017
UT Elliot Johnson - FA 2017
P Craig Kimbrel - FA 2017
P Cristhian Martinez - FA 2017
INF Ramiro Pena - FA 2017
OF Jordan Schafer - FA 2017
P Jordan Walden - FA 2017

SIGNED DEALS
C Gerald Laird - $1.5M 2014 - FA 2015
2B Dan Uggla - $13M 2014 - $13M 2015 - FA 2016
OF Justin Upton - $14.25M 2014 - $14.5M 2015 - FA 2016
OF B.J. Upton - $13.45M 2014 - $14.45M 2015 - $15.45M 2016 - $16.45M 2017 - FA 2018

2013 SEC Predictions

So who's going to win the SEC in 2013? Who will be playing in Atlanta come December? I don't know. I'm not Miss Cleo but will give my best guess at what will happen in the SEC this season when it kicks off on Thursday, August 29th with South Carolina playing host to North Carolina and Ole Miss traveling to Nashville to face Vanderbilt.

I went through and picked the winner of each game to the best of my ability and the results were surprising in a few games. But overall I think I nailed it. Texas A&M against South Carolina in Atlanta for the right to go to the BCS National Championship Game.

SEC EAST
1. South Carolina 7-1 (11-1)
2. Florida 6-2 (8-4)
3. Georgia 6-2 (9-3)
4. Vanderbilt 4-4 (8-4)
5. Tennessee 3-5 (6-6)
6. Kentucky 1-7 (4-8)
7. Missouri 1-7 (5-7)

SEC WEST
1. Texas A&M 7-1 (11-1)
2. Alabama 7-1 (11-1)
3. LSU 6-2 (10-2)
4. Mississippi State 3-5 (6-6)
5. Auburn 2-6 (6-6)
6. Ole Miss 2-6 (5-7)
7. Arkansas 1-7 (4-8)

The top 5 games that will shape the SEC season.

1. Alabama at Texas A&M - September 14th - The winner has the inside track to Atlanta and controls their own destiny. Last year the Aggies shocked the nation by going into Tuscaloosa and pulling off the improbable upset, 29-24, in their first year in the SEC. The Tide will be thinking payback this time around and having a week off before the game really helps their chances to pull off the upset in College Station.

2. South Carolina at Georgia - September 7th - The winner has the inside track to Atlanta and controls their own destiny. In 2011 in Athens, South Carolina won a wild game 45-42. Last year at home South Carolina easily dismantled Georgia to the tune of 35-7. Georgia is thinking payback this year.

3. LSU at Georgia - September 28th - In the SEC Championship Game in 2011, LSU humiliated Georgia 42-10. This is Georgia's first chance to get back at LSU since then and with the game being in Athens, Georgia has the advantage.

4. Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville, FL. - November 2nd - Georgia could be undefeated going into this game and nothing would make Florida fans happier than to see the Gators take down the Bulldogs and end their hopes of an undefeated season.

5. LSU at Alabama - November 9th - If Alabama loses to Texas A&M on September 14th, this game could decide the Tide's fate in having any slim chance of repeating as SEC champs and nothing would make LSU happier than to get revenge by handing the Tide a crushing 2nd SEC defeat and all but ending their season.

Craig Kimbrel Will Be Fine

If you're sitting there waiting for the 2012 version on Craig Kimbrel to show up, I've got bad news for you, it's not happening anytime soon. The season that Kimbrel had in 2012 was one for the ages and one that will never be duplicated again. But we should at least expect him to the be Craig Kimbrel of 2011 right?

But I do have good news about the 2013 version of Craig Kimbrel. He's not been as bad as things seem right now in light of his third blown save of the season, all coming in his last five appearances.

There's a lot of speculation that Kimbrel has suffered a drop in velocity and that's the reason he is getting hit this season. That's simply a myth. Kimbrel's average fastball velocity this season is 96.0. In 2012 it was 96.8. So mere percentage points separates Kimbrel's velocity the last two seasons.

Taking it back even further and we see that Kimbrel's average fastball velocity was 95.4 and 96.2 in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

The next question you ask yourself, "Is Kimbrel still getting the same movement on his fastball this season?", and the answer is yes.

In fact Kimbrel is generating more movement on his fastball this season than he did last season. He has a horizontal movement this season of -5.7 compared to -5.6 last season.

What that means is that his fastball from his release point is moving -5.7 inches to the left on a horizontal plane. On a vertical plane we see that Kimbrel's fastball moves 7.3 inches down from his release point over 7.0 last season.

So when looking at velocity and movement Craig Kimbrel is the same pitcher he has always been. So why is he getting hit more this season than he did in 2011 or 2012? It's because he is using his fastball more this season than he has in his career.

But it's not just that he's throwing his fastball more. It's the situations in which he is using his fastball move. According to Brooks Baseball, Kimbrel is throwing his fastball when ahead in the count to left-handed hitters 55 percent of the time this season up from 49 percent in 2012.

Against right-handed batter's it's even worse with him throwing his fastball 74 percent of the time when ahead in the count compared to just 62 percent in 2012. That's a huge difference. When ahead in the count to right-handed batters Kimbrel has all but abandoned his curveball, leading to hitters sitting dead red and not missing it.

Any major league hitter will tell you if you see the fastball enough from a pitcher, sooner or later, you'll time it. In order for Kimbrel to get back on track he must start throwing his curveball more to regain the advantage he had with his fastball which is completely overpowering when hitters don't know which pitch is coming.

Craig Kimbrel is a smart guy. He will eventually figure out that he needs to throw his curveball more in order to get back to dominating hitters. Until then we'll just have to deal with him struggling, especially against right-handed hitters who have the advantage of knowing a fastball is coming a whopping 84 percent of the time.

Braves Hit The Road Again

The Atlanta Braves hit the road again for a 10-game, 3-city road trip starting on Monday in Cincinnati. They'll play 3 in Cincinnati, 4 in San Francisco and 3 in Arizona. The Braves are 9-7 on the road this season.

The Braves welcome back 6-time All-Star catcher Brian McCann on Monday. McCann had Labrum surgery on his right shoulder last October. In 7 rehab games spread across Class-A Rome and Triple-A Gwinnett, McCann went 8-for-23 with a double, 4 homeruns and 9 RBIs. McCann's got great numbers in Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park, having hit .333 in his career there with 10 homeruns. Against Monday's starter Bronson Arroyo, McCann is 9-for-18 with 4 homeruns.

Getting McCann back will be huge for a Braves team that has struggled in recent weeks after starting the season 12-1. The Braves ended an up and down 6-game home stand by going 3-3 including Sunday's 9-4 victory over the New York Mets. The Braves have had their share of struggles against the Cincinnati Reds since 2007, going just 14-25 and just 6-17 at Great American Ball Park.

The Braves are just 6-11 in their last 17 games after starting the season 12-1. But despite their struggles they are still in 1st place in the NL East thanks in large part to the struggles of their biggest challenger, the Washington Nationals.

Here are the Braves next 10 games.

GAME 1 - MONDAY - MAY 6TH - @ REDS - 7:10 PM - SPSO, ESPN

Paul Maholm (3-3, 3.08)  vs. Bronson Arroyo (2-3, 3.95)

GAME 2 - TUESDAY - MAY 7TH - @ REDS - 7:10 PM - SPSO, MLBN

Kris Medlen (1-4, 3.38) vs. Homer Bailey (1-3, 3.38)

GAME 3 - WEDNESDAY - MAY 8TH - @ REDS - 12:35 PM - SPSO, MLBN

Mike Minor (3-2, 3.26) vs. Mike Leake (2-1, 4.15)

GAME 1 - THURSDAY - MAY 9TH - @ GIANTS - 10:15 PM - FSS, MLBN

Julio Teheran (1-0, 5.08) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (1-2, 7.20)

GAME 2 - FRIDAY - MAY 10TH - @ GIANTS - 10:15 PM - FSS

Tim Hudson (4-1, 3.83) vs. Matt Cain (1-2, 5.57)

GAME 3 - SATURDAY - MAY 11TH - @ GIANTS - 4:05 PM - FSS, MLBN

Paul Maholm (4-3, 3.09) vs. Madison Bumgarner (3-1, 2.31) 

GAME 4 - SUNDAY - MAY 12TH - @ GIANTS - 4:05 PM - FSS

Kris Medlen (1-4, 3.25) vs. Tim Lincecum (2-2, 4.75)

GAME 1 - MONDAY - MAY 13TH - @ DIAMONDBACKS - 9:40 PM - SPSO

Mike Minor (4-2, 2.96) vs. Wade Miley (3-1, 2.93)

GAME 2 - TUESDAY - MAY 14TH - @ DIAMONDBACKS - 9:40 PM - SPSO

Julio Teheran (1-0, 5.08) vs. Patrick Corbin (4-0, 1.80)

GAME 3 - WEDNESDAY - MAY 15TH - @ DIAMONDBACKS - 3:40 PM - SPSO

Tim Hudson (4-1, 3.83) vs. Ian Kennedy (1-3, 5.19)