Can the Braves win the NL East in 2009?

Can the Atlanta Braves win the NL East in 2009? I think so. With the right moves the Braves can not only win the NL East in 2009 but also set themselves up to do so in the long term. I know you have heard about all the Jake Peavy to the Braves trade rumors. He would be the most important piece in the Braves efforts to win the NL East in 2009.

Trading for Peavy won't be easy. It will cost some top notch prospects and possibly Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson. I doubt the Braves trade Johnson not knowing if Martin Prado is capable of playing 2nd base everyday. The latest rumors have the Braves getting Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene in a deal centered around Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson and some other prospects.

Say the Braves trade for Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene for Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, Jeff Locke, Cole Rohrbough and either Brandon Jones or some other mid level prospect.

Jake Peavy imediately gives the Braves a legit ace. A pitcher that strikes fear into an opponent in a short playoff series. Tim Hudson is really, really good but he doesn't strike fear into opponents the way Peavy would because Hudson doesn't strikeout a ton of guys. Yeah every now and then he'll have a 10 or so strikeout game but those are few and far between. The Braves haven't had a pitcher strike fear into an opponent since John Smoltz was in his prime and Peavy would change that.

Peavy will make 11 million in 2009 and that would be cheaper than signing one of the top notch guys on the market. Getting Peavy would allow the Braves to sign an innings eater such as a Jon Garland or Paul Byrd. My vote would be Garland because he is much younger than Byrd.

Garland will probably make around 11 or 12 million in 2009 just because of the lack of quality starting pitchers on the market. Garland is a very underrated pitcher. In 9 ML seasons he has a 106-89 record with a 4.47 ERA. They say pitching in the AL adds half a run to your ERA so basically we are talking about a pitcher with a career ERA right around 4 which is really good. The fact that Garland has made 30 or more starts in 7 straight seasons makes him very attractive. Add in another fact that he just doesn't walk alot of hitters and he would be a solid #3 starter.

Spending 22 million of the Braves' reported 45 million to spend still leaves plenty to spend on the LF and CF positions to solidify the lineup. LF and CF were both huge holes for the team in 2008. The Braves have top prospect Jason Heyward (who won't be traded period) waiting in the wings to fill the LF spot for many years to come but he won't be ready in 2009 so the Braves will have to find someone else.

The Braves would like whoever they get to play LF to be a right handed hitter with the Braves being a left-handed dominate lineup. Milton Bradley has had more than his fair share of run ins with managers but his production on the field doesn't lie. I doubt the Rangers let him go after the year he had but if they do let him walk I say sign him to a 1 year deal to play LF or CF. He is coming off a year in which he batted .321 with 22 homeruns and 77 rbis for the Rangers in 126 games. If he could get along with Bobby Cox he would be a solid addition to the lineup in 2009.

As for the other outfield spot that is really up in the air. The has never been any question about Rocco Baldelli's talent and the Braves nearly traded for him a few years back but with Baldelli's condition that keeps him from playing everyday he would have to be platooned with someone. This is where I say I wouldn't be shocked to see the Braves bring back Mark Kotsay. Kotsay was very productive for the Braves in 2008 before being traded to the Red Sox. In 88 games for the Braves Kotsay hit .289 with 6 homeruns and 37 rbis. I sure a lefty-righty platoon of Baldelli and Kotsay with be very productive for the Braves in 2009.

Now talking about the bench. The Braves need to re-sign Greg Norton. Norton was very solid coming off the bench in 2008 for the Braves. He had the 2nd most pinch hits in the NL in 2008. Omar Infante and Martin Prado were very solid feel ins for various injuries in 2008. Both should be back. Backup catcher is a concern for the Braves. I highly doubt Corky Miller will be back in 2009. I really don't know who the Braves are going to get for their backup catcher position but anybody will be an upgrade over Miller. Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson and Matt Diaz will be in a battle for the backup outfielder role.

C = Brian McCann
1B = Casey Kotchman
2B = Kelly Johnson
3B = Chipper Jones
SS = Khalil Greene
LF = Milton Bradley
CF = Rocco Baldelli/Mark Kotsay
RF = Jeff Francoeur

I know you're wondering where John Smoltz and Tom Glavine fit in for 2009. We won't find out until January or February if those guys will be able to pitch in 2009. If John Smoltz is able to pitch in 2009 he will have to decide if that will be in the role of starter or closer. If he chooses closer which I believe he might that would make what already looks to be a solid bullpen in 2009 even better. Glavine on the other hand if he is able to pitch would give the Braves another starter and even more depth they didn't have for 2008. Glavine was very good in 2008 before his elbow started messing with him. His 2-3 record and 4.85 ERA could have been alot better. He had 6 starts in 2008 where he pitched at least 6 innings and gave up 2 earned runs or less and got only 1 win to show for it.

Jake Peavy
Jair Jurrjens
Jon Garland
Jorge Campillo
Tom Glavine

That would be the Braves rotation minus Tim Hudson who had Tommy John surgery this past August and could be back as soon as late August next year. If the Braves are in contention getting Hudson back would be like making a major trade. Also Glavine would probably be low on gas by the time Hudson comes back and being able to use Glavine and Hudson to feel that #5 starter role with each getting extra rest between starts would be perfect for the Braves in 2009.

Now on to the bullpen. Rafael Soriano will be ready for spring training and Peter Moylan will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in May. If both pick up where they left off then the Braves would have a protential deadly bullpen and overall completely dominating pitching staff. Mike Gonzalez was very solid coming back this past June from his Tommy John surgery he had in May of 2007. He was 14 for 16 in converting save chances. I believe Manny Acosta and Blaine Boyer are very good relievers who both just got over used in 2008. One of the main keys to the bullpen in 2009 will be the Braves re-signing Will Ohman. Ohman was very solid in 2008.

Jeff Ridgway
Blaine Boyer
Will Ohman
Rafael Soriano
Peter Moylan
Mike Gonzalez
John Smoltz

With all of these moves the Braves can and will win the NL East in 2009.

Updated Braves Outlook

I am updating my Atlanta Braves outlook. After reading alot of people's take on the Braves and doing alot of thinking I think the Braves are capable at contending next year and setting themselves up nicely in the future. I say yeah they can contend for a playoff spot next year but I'm more excited to be looking toward 2010 or 2011. Come 2011 the Braves could be legit World Series contenders.

Here is how I would do it. David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution brings up the idea of protentially trading for the Marlins' Josh Willingham. Willingham is one of 17 arbitration eligible players the Marlins have. They won't be able to keep all of them and with their outfield depth Willingham is expendable. So that makes perfect since to me. Willingham could feel the left-field hole until whenever Jason Heyward is ready. He is a 20-25 homerun a year guy when healthy. Another reason Willingham would be a good fit is because he would be a cheaper player than say Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell or any other possible solution to the LF hole. Also the Braves wouldn't have to give up much to get him.

That would allow the Braves to spend money on starting pitchers. I really believe Derek Lowe is number one on the Braves list to feel the ace role. Then the Braves could sign a second level starter such as Paul Byrd or Jon Garland. Say the Braves sign Lowe and Garland. Also say that they bring Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and maybe Mike Hampton back on low base salaries with lots of incentives. The Braves would have the starting pitching depth they lacked this year when three of their starters went down to season ending injuries. The Braves could go into next season with a rotation with this look to it.

Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Jon Garland
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz
Mike Hampton
Jorge Campillo

That would also allow them to push James Parr and Charlie Morton back to Triple-A where they could get more seasoning. With those moves the Braves could contend in 2009 but also set themselves up nicely for 2010 and 2011 when the next wave of superstar talent is ready.

How would the Braves fill the center-field hole you ask? Well it wouldn't shock me one bit if Jordan Schafer is the Braves opening day starter in 2009. But hey what do I know. The Braves could do all of this or none of this. The great thing about this sport is trying to guess what a team will do during the off-season.

Atlanta Braves 2009 Outlook

The 2008 season was a mighty disappointing one for the Atlanta Braves. Injuries ruined any chance the Braves had of contending as John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Tim Hudson all went down to season ending surgery. For Smoltz and Glavine that could mean the end of their soon to be Hall of Fame careers.

Other injuries, most notably the nagging injuries to Chipper Jones, also took their toll. The Braves lost closer Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan to season ending surgery as well. Add in the fact that Jeff Francoeur had the worst season of his young career 2008 was a forgettable season.

Of course with every season comes some surprises. Jair Jurrjens at the tender age of 22 established himself as the future ace of the team for years to come and Jorge Campillo came out of nowhere to lock down a spot in the rotation with a bugs bunny type change up.

Martin Prado and Omar Infante proved to be valubale utility players while Mike Gonzalez returned from Tommy John surgery the previous season to re-establish himself as one of the more dominate closers in all of baseball. Gonzalez is most likely to return in that role again for 2009, unless John Smoltz returns to pitch out of the bullpen.

The offense took a hit during the season with the trade of 1B Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels. But 1B Casey Kotchman showed during the season's final month why he was acquired. Many scouts (myself included) believe Kotchman, who will be entering just his 3rd full season, will develop into a solid .300 hitter with 20 homerun power.

With Francoeur's down year and the lack of an everyday left-fielder and center-fielder the Braves outfield as a whole was the worst in all of baseball. Many single players had more homeruns than the Braves outfielders combined. That will most certainly have to change if the Braves are to contend in 2009. That all starts with Francoeur. Francoeur slumped to a .239 batting average a year after hitting .293. His power numbers also took a hit down to 11 homeruns and just 71 runs batted in. If Francoeur can get back to the 29 homeruns he showed in 2006 with the batting average of 2007 then that will go a long way in determining if the Braves make a comeback in 2009.

The Braves must find an everyday left-fielder and center-fielder. I personally like the speed of Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco but believe those guys will prove to be nothing more than number 4 outfielders at best. General Manager Frank Wren has his work cutout for him on that front.

But the main reason the Braves fell off in 2008 was the starting pitching. Frank Wren has said he wants to add 2 veteran starters and Mark Bowman the Braves.com beat writer estimates the Braves will have 45 million to work with. There are plenty of veteran starters on the market this year (unlike last year) but the price for pitching has increased greatly over the past few years. A solid starter now costs in the range of 15-20 million dollars a year.

Here are some of the guys the Braves might be looking at:

A. J. Burnett
Derek Lowe
John Lackey
Ben Sheets
CC Sabathia

The Braves also might have trade for what players they want. But they have made it clear that their top prospects are off limits. That if they have too they will bite the bullet on 2009 and look forward to 2010. I wouldn't be apposed to that myself. For the last 3 or 4 years the Braves have been trying to reload and have been raiding the farm system as a result. Lets not forget that the Braves didn't get to all those World Series in the 90s by raiding the farm system. The core of those teams was home grown players starting with the starting pitchers.

If I had my way about things I would bring back Glavine, Smoltz, Hampton and maybe Maddux for one last ride and talk those guys into retiring along with Bobby Cox so the Braves can finally move on from living in the past.

The Braves have done that with the position players but have yet to do it with the pitching staff and we have seen over the years that you don't win games without pitching. Just look at the Texas Rangers if you need proof.

The Braves are have some young pitchers in the lower minor league levels with some upside. The closest one to the majors seems to be RHP Tommy Hanson. The Braves would like to keep from rushing him to the bigs next year but he might be in the rotation next year if injuries come up. Other young pitchers include LHP Cole Rohrbough, LHP Jeff Locke and RHP Julio Teheran.

Speaking of position players the Braves have a kid who might be ready for the bigs by the end of next year named Jason Heyward. He was the Braves top draft pick in the 2007 draft and has monster power. He could fill that hole in leftfield for years to come. I also say give Jordan Schafer every chance in the world to win the centerfield job next year. If Francoeur gets back to the old Frenchy that would be one hell of an outfield for years too come.

Just my take on the Atlanta Braves.